Post hoc ergo Paroubek

18.09.2009 11:20

Otakáro Motejl v rozhovoru pro iHned. cz v souvislosti s volbami-nevolbami řekl, že: "Jejich hlavním argumentem jsou zaplacené billboardy a teď se jenom všichni třesou na to, aby už dostali dvacetikorunu za hlas. A paní Paroubková by musela zřejmě znovu otěhotnět, když se volby posunou." Na Novinkách.cz to obratem interpretují tak, že Motejl "naznačil", že Paroubková otěhotněla kvůli volbám.

Zvláštní je, že v hystericky politicky korektní reakci Novinek (kulaťoučké bříško áááno) je podle mého soudu ukryt paralogismus post hoc ergo propter hoc a to ještě dost zvláštně. Tento paralogismus je sám o sobě poměrně známý, jde o nesprávnou záměnu následnosti za příčinnost. Příklad: pan T. je v poledne nevěrný, večer donese manželce Pavle domů kytku. Závěr je ten, že kytka je buď zastírací manévr nebo výpotek pocitu provinění. Ve skutečnosti má ovšem Pavla dnes narozeniny, pan T. necítí žádný pocit provinění a už vůbec nehodlá nic zastírat, protože cizoložnici Lucii miluje opravdovou láskou a chce s ní mít syna Nikimause.

A teď zpátky k Motejlovi a Novinkám. Motejl konstatoval toliko tolik, že PePa je těhotná a že socdem využívá jejího těhotenství jako volebního taháku. Na základě úvahy post hoc ergo propter hoc bychom soudili, že jelikož volby příjdou po početí, bylo početí jaksi aplikováno kvůli volbám. Jak ale každý ví, malá paroubkovic blastule se pekla dost dlouho předtím, než nám socialisté udělali odvoláním vlády mezinárodní ostudu a vyvolali v nás potřebu volit. A když to ví každý, ví to i Motejl. Svojí hlasitou obranou se Novinky snažily podsunout Motejlovi (chybnou) tezi, dopustily se tak z hlediska neformální logiky trestuhodného dialektického manévru, fuj.

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Diskusní téma: Post hoc ergo Paroubek

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